A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
